The World Cup can be watched for free on Xiaohongshu this year, but Douyin, which spent more than one billion yuan on copyright last time, did not buy it this time-each advance and retreat hides the fact that China traffic has peaked

Let's start with one thing that has been relevant to every fan since June.

The 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico, you can watch it for free on Little Red Book this year.

On May 27, China Central Radio and Television Station and Xiaohongshu held a strategic cooperation signing ceremony in Beijing. Xiaohongshu officially became the rights-holding broadcaster of the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico and the CCTV's top event live broadcast strategic partner.

To speak people's words-all 104 games of this World Cup can be watched live, reviewed, and highlights for free by opening the Little Red Book App, web version, or casting them on your mobile phone on TV. There is no need to open a membership, and there is no need to buy a separate football bag.

This World Cup is particularly big. The team was expanded to 48 teams, with a 39-day schedule and a total of 104 games. It is the largest in history.

For an ordinary fan, that's the meaning of this news-it's good to have another place to watch football for free.

But that's not what I want to talk to you about.

What I want to talk about is the particularly interesting comparison on the back of this incident-Xiaohongshu spent money to enter the World Cup for the first time, and Douyin, which reportedly spent more than 1 billion yuan on copyright in the previous year, didn't buy it this time.

One platform rushed in and one platform retreated.

Between this advance and retreat, there is one of the most important changes in China's Internet in the past two years.

Below, I will put out the data one by one.

!

first explain clearly what Xiaohongshu got

The copyright chain this time needs to be clearly explained, otherwise it will be easy to misunderstand.

FIFA has exclusively granted CCTV the all-media copyright for the four World Cups from 2026 to 2031. According to media reports, the copyright fee for a single World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico is about US$60 million-nearly 80% of FIFA's original offer of US$250 million.

After CCTV obtained the exclusive agency rights, it then distributed it to the Internet platform for secondary distribution.

In addition to CCTV's own platform and Migu, a subsidiary of China Mobile, which it has previously cooperated with, Xiaohongshu is the only licensee authorized by the radio station in the public Internet field-it can provide a full set of rights and interests in real-time broadcasts, delayed broadcasts, on-demand broadcasts, and Short Video highlights.

In other words, apart from CCTV and Migu, the only place on the public network where you can legally watch World Cup live broadcasts and Short Video is Xiaohongshu's family.

The copyright fee for Xiaohongshu was not officially disclosed. According to "Late LatePost", the price won by Xiaohongshu this time is not higher than in previous editions. As a reference, Times Finance once quoted industry insiders during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar that the price for Migu and Douyin to obtain World Cup broadcasting rights from CCTV exceeded 1 billion yuan.

Therefore, the amount of money Xiao Hongshu spent this time is probably in this range, or even more economical.

This is a lot of money for a platform that has not yet gone public and is still rushing for growth.

Why did Little Red Book spend this money?

This depends on Xiao Hongshu's current situation.

According to the media quoted in the World Cup report, Xiaohongshu currently has more than 170 million daily active users and more than 400 million monthly active users. (It should be noted that the statistical caliber of the third-party organization QuestMobile will be lower. The data at the beginning of 2025 is in the range of 235 million to 300 million per month, and the daily activity is around 140 million. There has always been a gap between platform self-reported numbers and third-party calculations, which is the norm in the industry.)

Regardless of which tone, two things are certain--

First, the little red book is still rising, and it wants to rise faster. This live broadcast of the World Cup is generally interpreted as an important starting point for Little Red Book to hit the "200 million daily lives".

Second, Xiaohongshu has a structural shortcoming-there are too few male users.

The proportion of male users disclosed by Xiaohongshu last time remained at around 30%. The ratio of men to women in the community is about 3 to 7. People under the age of 30 account for 85%. This is a typical community dominated by young women.

This user structure is a huge advantage in categories such as "grass planting, beauty, clothing, and lifestyle." But it cannot open several other high-value categories-automobiles, 3C digital, sports, and finance. A large number of core consumer decision-makers in these categories are men.

What is the World Cup? The World Cup is one of the largest and most concentrated male traffic entrances on the Chinese Internet.

Xiaohongshu wants to use the World Cup to increase the proportion of male users from 30% to 35% to 40%, and then use this new group of male users to open up high-value categories such as automobiles, 3Cs, sports, and finance that it has been unable to enter.

This is the real calculation it is willing to spend more than one billion yuan. What it is buying is not "World Cup broadcasting rights", it is buying "a group of users it lacks the most" and "a few markets it cannot enter."

Moreover, the little red book was not a last-minute idea. It has been on the sports line for four years--

In the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Little Red Book exclusively signed Simone, Mourinho and Zidane, adding in-depth sports content. In the 2024 European Cup, Mbappe served as the spokesperson and also left a hot spot on the circle. In August 2025, the platform launched the live broadcast of the German Super Cup and became the official rights-holding broadcaster of the Bundesliga League. Later, he successively won live broadcasts such as the German Table Tennis League A and the U23 China Team Asian Cup qualifiers, which Fan Zhendong joined.

The matching data is that the number of people interested in "football" on Xiaohongshu has exceeded 100 million, and the number of interactive discussions related to "football" has increased by more than 100% year-on-year in the past year.

Therefore, this step of the World Cup is the total explosion of its four-year sports layout, not a slap in the head.

!

Why didn't Douyin buy it this time?

This is the most interesting part of this matter.

At the last World Cup in Qatar, Douyin was a rights-holding broadcaster and reportedly spent more than 1 billion yuan. This year, Douyin did not renew its contract.

Why?

It's not that Douyin can't afford it. Douyin is no longer needed.

Look at the volume of Douyin-As of 2025 to 2026, Douyin (including the extreme speed version) has more than 1 billion monthly active users, and the daily active users are in the range of 750 million to 800 million (different calibers vary). Per capita daily use The duration exceeds 110 minutes. It is the Short Video platform with the largest number of users and the longest usage time in China.

Douyin has stood at the absolute peak of Internet traffic in China. It has no shortage of users or duration, and the daily activity ceiling has long been verified.

For today's Douyin, what can it bring to spend another billion yuan to buy a World Cup copyright?

Pull new ones-I can't pull them anymore because basically all the users who should have come are here.

Remain-the World Cup lasts for 39 days, which is a short-term event. Spending more than one billion yuan for 39 days of retention improvements is extremely low cost performance.

Therefore, for Douyin, World Cup copyright has changed from a "growth tool" in the past to an "expensive retention tool" today. A platform that has reached its peak will no longer pay for this kind of thing.

This is the logic of advance and retreat--

Xiaohongshu bought the World Cup because it is still in a growth period and lacks male users and high-value categories. The World Cup can help it break through the circle. This money is an "investment" for it.

Douyin does not buy the World Cup because it has reached its peak and there is no need to break the circle. The World Cup is just a "cost" to it.

The same World Cup copyright is investment for one and cost for the other. The difference is not in the copyright itself, but in the different stages of the two platforms.

looks up one level: Internet traffic in China has really peaked

This advance and retreat are actually a microcosm of the peak of overall Internet traffic in China.

Over the past decade or so, the logic of China's mobile Internet has been to "grab growth"-the total number of Internet users has been rising, and whoever can trap new users faster will win. Top IPs such as the World Cup, Spring Festival Gala, and Olympic Games are the most powerful weapons for each family to compete for. In the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, Douyin, Fast Hand, Migu, CCTV and various platforms competed for the competition.

But now, the increase is basically gone.

The total number of Internet users in China has long exceeded 1.1 billion, and the penetration rate has reached a position where it is difficult to increase significantly. Douyin is active for 1 billion months and WeChat is active for 1.4 billion months. The user plates of these super apps are basically the entire Internet in China.

When the increment is gone, the game changes from "grabbing the increment" to "grabbing the stock"-grabbing the user's time, grabbing the user's wallet, and grabbing what the user does in which app.

In this new game, platforms are divided into two categories--

One category is those that have reached the peak (Douyin, WeChat, Taobao). Their strategy is to "defend"-defend the duration, defend the transaction, and defend their fundamentals. They no longer need to pay for top-level IP because they can't go up even if they buy it.

The other category is those with room for growth (Xiaohongshu, Station B, and some vertical platforms). Their strategy is to "rush"-use top-level IP to break through the circle, leverage the part of users they lack, and open up categories that they cannot enter.

Xiaohongshu's purchase of the World Cup and Douyin's withdrawal from the World Cup are two different choices made by these two types of platforms in the era of peak traffic.

It's not a question of which is smarter. They stand in different positions and can only make different choices.

But Xiao Hongshu's big bet is also very risky

I have to explain the other side clearly, otherwise it will become one-sided.

Xiao Hongshu's money is under great pressure to return the capital.

The first hurdle is the time difference. The World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico is held in North America, and 70% of the events are broadcast in the middle of the night. There are few people watching the game in the second half of the night, and the supporting consumption scenarios, advertising conversions, and e-commerce delivery efficiency will be greatly reduced. You spend more than one billion yuan on gold content, but 70% of it ends up being spent in the rest of the night when no one watches it. This account is difficult to settle.

The second obstacle is the conflict of community tone. Today's main fan base usually grew up in places such as football masters, tiger pounce, and live broadcast bars, forming a fan culture of "strong emotions, clear-cut positions, and quarrelling." The background of Xiaohongshu is a lifestyle community that is "gentle, grass growing, and quiet." Whether these two cultures can be integrated is a big question mark. Once a large number of fierce fans flock in, it may impact the original community atmosphere of Xiaohongshu and crowd out old users. This is the risk of killing 1,000 enemies and losing 800 people.

The third hurdle is to remain after the game. The World Cup lasts for 39 days. 39 days later, will these male users who come to watch the game stay? If you can't stay, then the billion yuan will be spent for 39 days, and the fireworks will be gone.

Each of these three obstacles is difficult. Xiao Hongshu's gamble is "using the 39 days of the World Cup to establish male users and the sports content ecosystem at one time." If the bet is won, it will complete a critical leap from a "grass planting community" to a "comprehensive content platform." If you lose the bet, you will have an expensive tuition fee of more than one billion yuan.

No one knows the result now. But this bet itself has already explained the situation of Little Red Book-it must bet, because if you don't bet, you won't be able to break the circle, and if you don't break the circle, you will hit the growth ceiling.

What does QKPFX5 mean to you and me

When it comes to you, there are three layers to this matter.

The first level, the most direct one-starting from June this year, you will have an extra place to watch the World Cup for free. If you already use the little red book, it's quite convenient. If you don't use it, you may download it for the World Cup. This is exactly what Xiao Hongshu wants.

Second, if you are doing content or business-Xiaohongshu will vigorously support sports content in the next six months, providing traffic and subsidies. Male content (sports, automobiles, 3C, digital, sports, outdoor) will usher in a traffic dividend window on Little Red Book. If you are doing content or business in these directions, this is an opportunity to watch.

Third, if you pay attention to the Internet industry or investment-remember this signal of advance and retreat. It tells you that China's Internet has completely entered the era of stock. To judge whether a platform is worth optimistic about, we no longer look at whether it has "bought top-level IP", but at whether it is "in a growth period or a maintenance period." Buying IP on platforms during the growth period is an investment, and buying IP on platforms during the maintenance period is a waste. This judgment framework is very useful for understanding the Internet landscape of China in the next few years.

Last

The World Cup can be watched for free on Xiaohongshu this year. Watching alone is a convenient news.

Digging down one layer, Xiaohongshu is using a gamble of more than one billion yuan to leverage the male users it lacks most and the high-value categories it cannot access, completing the key leap from a grass planting community to a comprehensive platform.

Digging further down, Douyin, which spent more than one billion yuan on copyright last time, voluntarily withdrew this time-because it has reached its peak, the World Cup has turned it from a growth tool to an expensive cost.

Digging further down, after Internet traffic in China peaked, the platform divided into two categories: "still rushing" and "already holding", making completely opposite choices for the same top-level IP.

This is the clearest slice of China's mobile Internet from the "incremental era" to the "stock era."

In order to break the circle, a platform threw money and rushed in.

A platform quietly retreated because it peaked.

Separating from it is the biggest turn of the times in China's Internet in the past decade.

The World Cup starts at the end of June. When you open the little red book and watch the game, you will see more than just a game. It is a platform that is still struggling to grow up, and it is a big bet on your fortune.

If you win the bet, you will know in 39 days.

!